Red Teaming

Background

Red teaming traces its origins to the Cold War, when the RAND Corporation ran military simulations with "red" representing the USSR and "blue" representing the United States. It was institutionalized in the U.S. intelligence community after 9/11, when failures to "connect the dots" were traced in part to entrenched bias and lack of dissent within analytic organizations.

Businesses have since adopted red teaming techniques to stress-test strategic plans, probe cyber defenses, and avoid costly misjudgments. Companies that failed to challenge their own assumptions struggled to adapt, while those that embraced adversarial thinking thrived amid disruption.

Why Red Teaming Matters

Unchecked assumptions have contributed to intelligence failures and major business losses. Red teaming operationalizes adversarial analysis as a routine part of the workflow. The benefits include:

• Fewer blind spots and more robust risk identification
• Increased trust in the analytic process through transparency
• Stronger, more defensible conclusions that withstand scrutiny
• A culture of analytic resilience and intellectual humility

The Red Teaming Process

A typical red teaming workflow within the context of a broader analysis:

1. Complete your initial analysis - Use decomposition to identify key drivers and indicators, assess scenarios, and gather forecasts.
2. Conduct red team analysis - Challenge your conclusions using contrarian thinking, adversarial views, and cognitive bias detection.
3. Evaluate the arguments - Assess the logic of the generated challenges and the credibility of any new evidence presented.
4. Refine and iterate - Revisit other techniques in your analysis based on the red team exercise.