Start With the Right Question

No matter how sophisticated your tools or techniques, the quality of any analysis depends on the quality of your starting point: the research question. Every analysis in Hinsley begins with a question about the future. A clear, focused question guides your collection of information and shapes the usefulness of every downstream technique.

1. Balance Depth and Breadth

Hinsley is designed to handle big, strategic questions through decomposition, but it is still important to be specific enough to get the information you need without missing important context.

Tune your question to get specific signals

Broad questions can return unfocused results. Narrowing the scope helps Hinsley surface the most relevant information. For example, rather than asking "How will the China-US relationship develop?", consider "How will China-US trade policies change over the next 4 years?"

Avoid going too narrow

Overly specific questions can miss the bigger picture. Instead of "Will the US have the fastest supercomputer?", try "What country is best positioned to lead the world in supercomputing?"

2. Align With Stakeholder Needs

Consider who will use your analysis and what decisions it should inform.

  • Identify your target audience: Consider both direct recipients and downstream users of your insights.
  • Enable concrete steps: Frame questions so the analysis leads to actionable recommendations. For example, rather than "How will the ongoing trade war develop?", consider "Which countries are most likely to open their markets to US companies as part of the ongoing tariff war?"
  • Consider impact: Do not shy away from unlikely possibilities if they could have an outsized impact on your organization.

3. Keep Your Analysis Forward-Looking

While it is important to understand the past and present, backward-looking research should serve the purpose of creating future-focused insights. Exclusively historical analysis can limit stakeholder consideration of future possibilities. For example, ask "How will interest rates change over the next year?" rather than framing the question purely in historical terms.

Example Research Questions

Geopolitics

  • Which maritime choke point is at greatest risk of having its operations disrupted?
  • How will the outcome of Canada's election affect Canada-US trade relations?

Finance & Markets

  • How will capital markets and dealmaking evolve over the next 3 years?
  • How will tariff policy affect the position of the US dollar as the global reserve currency?

Science & Technology

  • Which quantum computing architectures or platforms are most likely to become commercially viable?
  • Which new battery technologies will be most economically viable in the next 5 years?

Business

  • Which lines of business at a large insurance company are likely to see the greatest shifts in risk exposure due to climate change?
  • Which countries are most likely to open their markets to US companies as part of the ongoing tariff war?

Once you have a well-framed question, the next step is to break it down through decomposition.