Building a Decomposition

A decomposition breaks your analysis question into drivers - the key factors that will shape the outcome - and indicators - the observable signals you can track to understand how each driver is evolving. The decomposition builder is where you create this structure, either manually or with AI assistance.

The Builder View

When you open a decomposition, the default view is the builder. It shows a list of drivers, each with its own set of indicators nested beneath it. From the builder you can add, edit, reorder, and delete drivers and indicators.

The navigation bar at the top of the page provides access to the builder, three visualization modes, and a settings menu with options for AI generation and export.

Driver Types: Standard and Wildcard

Drivers come in two types:

  • Standard drivers are the key events, metrics, or activities expected to influence the outcome. These are the core factors that will shape how the analysis question resolves.
  • Wildcard drivers are low-probability, high-impact factors that could significantly alter the trajectory if they occur. Wildcard drivers are marked with a bolt icon (  ) in the builder to distinguish them at a glance.

When Hinsley AI generates a decomposition, it may identify certain drivers as wildcards based on their probability and potential impact. You can also designate any driver as a wildcard when creating or editing it.

Filtering Drivers

The builder includes three filter tabs at the top that let you focus on a subset of your drivers:

  • Standard - Shows only standard drivers and their indicators
  • Wildcard - Shows only wildcard drivers and their indicators
  • All - Shows all drivers regardless of type

The filter tabs display a count badge showing how many drivers exist in each category. When adding a new driver from the Standard tab, the new driver is created as a standard driver; adding from the Wildcard tab creates it as a wildcard. The All tab defaults to creating standard drivers.

Adding Drivers

To add a driver, type the driver’s name in the input field at the top of the builder and click Add. The new driver appears at the top of the list. When you add a driver, Hinsley automatically generates a set of suggested indicators for it in the background - you will see a brief loading state while the indicators are created.

Each driver has action buttons in its header for editing the driver text, regenerating its indicators, or deleting the driver and all its indicators.

Adding Indicators

Each driver has an “Add Indicator” input beneath its existing indicators. Type the indicator text and click Add to create it. You can also edit or delete individual indicators.

Indicators added by Hinsley’s AI are generated automatically when a driver is created or when you click the regenerate button on a driver. You can freely mix manually created and AI-generated indicators within the same driver.

Indicator Details

Click an indicator to open its detail view. This panel shows an AI-generated research summary that synthesizes available source material related to that indicator. The summary is generated automatically the first time you view an indicator’s details.

Reordering

Both drivers and indicators can be reordered by dragging. Use the drag handle on the left side of any driver or indicator row to move it to a new position. The new order is saved automatically.

AI-Generated Decompositions

Rather than building a decomposition manually, you can have Hinsley generate the entire structure. From the settings menu in the navigation bar, select “Generate Decomposition” (or “Re-generate Decomposition” if drivers already exist).

The generation dialog lets you optionally provide context to guide the AI:

  • Existing scenarios from your analysis
  • Search results and monitoring data from saved searches
  • Source materials you have uploaded
  • Custom instructions describing what you want the decomposition to focus on

Hinsley generates a complete set of drivers and indicators based on your analysis topic and the context you provide. Note that generating a decomposition replaces any existing drivers and indicators in the current decomposition. If you want to preserve your current work, clone the decomposition before regenerating.

Generating Forecasting Questions from Indicators

Once your decomposition has indicators, you can automatically generate forecasting questions for them. From the settings menu, select “Generate Indicator Questions.” This option appears when indicators exist that do not yet have linked forecasting questions.

Question generation is a two-stage process:

  1. Scoring & grouping - Hinsley evaluates all indicators, groups related ones together, and selects the most analytically informative set. Grouping ensures that each resulting forecasting question captures a coherent signal rather than duplicating coverage.
  2. Formulation - Hinsley writes one forecasting question per group, connecting the decomposition structure to the forecasting workflow.

Choosing a Scenario Set for Scoring

The scoring stage can optimize indicator selection against the scenarios in a specific scenario set, improving how well the resulting questions discriminate between alternative futures. If your analysis has more than one scenario set, Hinsley will prompt you with a modal to select which set to score indicators against before generation begins. If your analysis has only one scenario set, generation starts immediately without a prompt.

Indicators are linked to the scenario set used during generation. If no scenario set is available, indicators are scored against the primary set by default.

Visualizations

In addition to the builder, three visualization modes let you see your decomposition from different perspectives. Switch between them using the tabs in the navigation bar.

Icicle

A two-column layout that shows drivers on the left and their indicators on the right. This is a compact view for quickly scanning the full structure.

Tree

An interactive org-chart-style diagram powered by D3. Drivers branch out from the analysis topic, and indicators branch from their parent drivers. You can zoom in and out, rotate between vertical and horizontal layouts, and expand or collapse branches. Double-click blank space to zoom, or drag to pan.

Nested

A horizontal card layout where each driver is a column containing its indicators as a vertical list. This view supports real-time updates - if a collaborator adds an indicator while you are viewing the nested layout, it appears automatically.

Exporting

From the settings menu you can export your decomposition in several formats:

  • Outline - A structured text outline of all drivers and indicators
  • PNG - A screenshot of any of the three visualization modes, suitable for including in presentations or reports

Working with the Chat

When using the Hinsley chat within an analysis, the chat is aware of which decomposition you are currently viewing. AI-generated suggestions for new drivers or indicators will target the active decomposition. You can also switch the chat’s context to a different decomposition using the context selector in the chat header.