Resolving Questions

After the forecasting period ends, questions can be resolved to record the actual outcome. Resolving a question closes it for new forecasts and enables accuracy metrics that compare the consensus to the real result.

Resolving a Question

When a question’s forecasting period ends, its status changes to “Pending Resolution.” To resolve it:

  1. Navigate to the question and open the resolution form
  2. Select the correct answer from the list of possible answers
  3. Enter the date and time when the answer became known (this must be in the past)
  4. Provide resolution details explaining the outcome and any relevant notes
  5. Submit the resolution

If you have approval permissions, the resolution takes effect immediately. Otherwise, it is submitted for approval by someone with the appropriate permissions.

What a Resolved Question Shows

Once resolved, the question page displays:

  • The correct answer highlighted prominently
  • The resolution details and date
  • The final forecast probability at the time of resolution
  • Forecast accuracy metrics comparing the consensus to the actual outcome
  • A trend graph showing how the forecast evolved relative to the final answer

Unresolving a Question

If a resolution was entered in error, administrators can unresolve the question, reverting it to the “Pending Resolution” state.