Scenario Detailed Descriptions

A scenario detailed description is an AI-generated analytical narrative that explains how a scenario could plausibly unfold - including the causal chain of events, second-order effects, and the key dynamics that would drive the outcome. Detailed descriptions appear on the scenario detail page and give collaborators a richer understanding of each scenario beyond its title and likelihood estimate.

Where Detailed Descriptions Appear

On a scenario’s detail page, the Overview tab is where the detailed description lives. If a description has been generated and cited source documents exist, the page shows the description on the left and a list of cited sources on the right. If no sources were cited, the description takes the full width of the page.

The scenario detail page also has a Likelihood History tab, which tracks how likelihood estimates have changed over time.

Generating a Detailed Description

Scenarios created via Generate Scenarios come with a detailed description already populated as part of the bulk generation process. For scenarios that don’t have one - for example, scenarios you created manually - you can generate a description on demand:

1. Navigate to the scenario’s detail page.
2. Select the Overview tab.
3. Click Generate Detailed Description.

Generation runs in the background. A loading indicator appears while Hinsley is working. Once complete, the description appears in place of the loading state.

Generation is only available for analyses with an Active status. If your analysis is inactive, set it to active before generating.

How the Description Is Written

When generating a detailed description, Hinsley draws on the source documents attached to the analysis. It selects the most relevant documents for the scenario, uses them to ground the narrative, and cites them inline within the description text.

The resulting description is a multi-paragraph analytical narrative written in a structured analytical style. It explains:

• How the scenario would come about
• The causal mechanisms and dynamics that would drive it
• Second-order and downstream effects

Cited Sources

When Hinsley cites source documents in a detailed description, those citations appear as numbered references inline in the text. The corresponding documents are listed in the Sources panel on the right side of the Overview tab. Each citation in the list links to the document’s detail page, where you can read the full source material.

The cited sources are drawn from the analysis’s research material - documents that have been uploaded or added via saved searches or source material. The more relevant source material the analysis has, the more grounded the description will be.

Editing a Detailed Description

Detailed descriptions can be manually edited from the scenario’s edit form. If you want to revise the generated text, add context, or correct inaccuracies, open the scenario for editing and update the detailed description field directly.