Creating Forecasting Questions

Forecasting questions are one of the core features in Hinsley. They let you pose specific questions about the future, collect probability estimates from human forecasters and AI models, and track how the consensus evolves over time. You can use forecasting questions on their own or link them to decomposition indicators to create a structured forecasting workflow.

What Is a Forecasting Question?

A forecasting question asks about a specific future outcome and collects probability estimates from forecasters. Each question includes:

  • Question text - A clear, specific question about a future event or outcome
  • Question type - Binary (Yes/No) or Multinomial (multiple possible answers)
  • Background information - Context that helps forecasters understand the topic
  • Resolution criteria - How the question will be judged as resolved, so forecasters know exactly what counts as a correct answer
  • Forecasting period - Start and end dates that define when forecasts can be submitted

Where Forecasting Questions Live

Forecasting questions in Hinsley exist in one of two places, and the choice affects who can see them and what features are available:

Analysis-Linked Questions

Analysis-linked questions belong to a specific analysis. You create them from the Forecasting Questions page in the analysis sidebar, and they only appear within that analysis. Access follows the analysis - only the creator and collaborators on that analysis can see and edit them (unless the question is published).

Analysis-linked questions are the only questions that can be:

Account-Level Questions

Account-level questions are not tied to any analysis. You create them from the top-level Forecasting tab in the main navigation, and they are visible to every member of your Hinsley account. Use them for standing questions your organization wants to track independently of a specific research project.

Account-level questions support the same core features - AI forecasting, publishing, and guest forecasters - but they cannot link to decomposition indicators and they draw only on source documents attached directly to the question rather than inheriting an analysis’s research context.

Creating a New Question

Navigate to the Forecasting section of your analysis and click to create a new question. The creation form asks you to configure the following:

Question Type

Choose between two question types:

  • Binary - A Yes/No question. Forecasters assign a probability to each outcome, and the two probabilities must sum to 100%. Example: “Will the EU impose new sanctions on Country X by December 2026?”
  • Multinomial - A question with multiple possible answers (minimum two). Forecasters distribute probabilities across all answers, which must sum to 100%. Example: “Which country will host the 2036 Olympics?” with answer options for different candidate cities.

Background Information and Resolution Criteria

Use the background information field to provide relevant context - recent events, key data, or framing that helps forecasters make informed estimates. The resolution criteria field should specify exactly how the question will be resolved: what source will be used, what threshold counts, and any edge cases.

Both fields support rich text formatting and can hold up to 10,000 characters.

Forecasting Period

Set a start date and end date for the forecasting window. Forecasts can only be submitted during this period. After the end date, the question moves to a “Pending Resolution” state.

Inviting Forecasters by Email

During question creation, you can enter email addresses to invite specific people to forecast. Each invitee receives an email with a link to the question’s forecasting form. Invitees do not need to be registered Hinsley users - they can submit forecasts as guests.

AI-Assisted Question Drafting

If you have a question topic in mind but want help refining it, use the Autofill feature. Enter a question name and click Autofill - Hinsley will generate a refined question along with suggested background information and resolution criteria. Review and adjust the generated content before saving.

AI Forecasting

When creating a question, you can enable AI forecasting to have Hinsley’s LLM models automatically generate probability estimates. Configure a schedule for how often AI forecasts are generated:

  • Daily - A new AI forecast every day
  • Weekly - A new AI forecast on a specific day of the week
  • Monthly - A new AI forecast on a specific day of the month

AI forecasting can also be enabled or disabled after the question is created. You can trigger an AI forecast manually at any time from the question page. Each AI forecast includes a rationale explaining the reasoning behind the estimate, including base rates, arguments for and against, and references to source material.

Managing Questions

The forecasting questions list provides filtering and sorting options to help you manage questions across an analysis:

  • Filter by source type, AI forecasting status, or question status (active, pending resolution, resolved, voided)
  • Sort by name, status, number of human forecasts, number of AI forecasts, or end date
  • Search by question name

You can edit a question at any time to update its title, background information, resolution criteria, or forecasting period. Answer options are locked once any forecasts have been submitted to preserve data integrity.

Question Statuses

Each question progresses through a lifecycle reflected by its status:

  • Active - The question is within its forecasting period and accepting forecasts
  • Pending Resolution - The forecasting period has ended and the question awaits resolution
  • Resolved - The correct answer has been recorded
  • Voided - The question has been cancelled

Once you have a question set up, the next step is to collect forecasts.