Multiple-Outcome Questions

A multiple-outcome question lists several options, and each option resolves on its own as occurred or did not occur. More than one option can occur, and it is also possible that none of them occur. This makes it a different shape from the other two question types, where exactly one option is correct and probabilities are shared out across the whole answer set.

The Three Question Types

An example: “Which of these countries will announce new export controls on advanced semiconductors before July 2027?” with an option per country. Several countries may announce controls, or none may.

Creating One

Pick Multiple Outcomes as the question type on the question form, then enter the options. A multiple-outcome question needs at least two options. Autofill proposes between two and eight when it drafts a question of this type.

Each option is judged separately against the question's resolution criteria. The options lock once the first forecast arrives or the first outcome is decided.

Three features are unavailable on this question type:

• Ordinal scoring - ordinality describes one ordered distribution, so it has no meaning across options that resolve independently.
• Decomposition indicator groups and lattice positions - both accept binary questions only.
• Sync to an external site - the sync contract reads one winner and one distribution. A multiple-outcome question is skipped rather than mis-synced.

Submitting a Forecast

Each option gets its own probability that it occurs, on a 0 to 100 scale, and every option starts at 50. The options carry no sum rule, so the forecast form shows no running total and no Normalize to 100 button.

Options that are already decided appear above the inputs under Already resolved, each with its outcome. The remaining options are usually judged in light of the decided ones, so they stay on the page.

As on any question, a written rationale is optional.

Reading the Results

Each option's probability is drawn against 0 to 100 on its own, rather than as a share of the answer set. An option a forecast does not state is left out of the display. The answer graph switcher lets you follow one option's history at a time.

Resolving Option by Option

The resolution form asks what happened to each option and offers three choices per option:

• Occurred - the option happened.
• Did not occur - the option is settled, and it did not happen.
• Leave open - the option is still undecided, and a later resolution can settle it.

An option you do not touch stays open. Settling an option ends forecasting and scoring for it permanently, so it takes an explicit click. At least one option must be decided for the resolution to be accepted.

Enter the date the outcome became known, then the resolution details, and submit. Approval works as it does on every other question type: if you hold approval permissions the resolution takes effect immediately, and otherwise it goes for review.

The question itself closes only when its last option is settled. Until then it keeps accepting forecasts on the options that remain open, and scoring waits for the close, so a half-settled question is never scored.

Reopening an Outcome

A resolution can be reversed with Reopen outcomes, which reopens the options that resolution decided. Unresolving the question reopens every option standing on it. Both actions are available from the first option settled, before the question as a whole has resolved.

A reopened option earns no accuracy score for the period it spent closed. It accepts forecasts again from the reopen onward.

Accuracy Scoring

Each option is scored as its own two-outcome Brier score, and the option scores are averaged. The result sits on the same 0 to 2 Brier scale used for binary and multiple-choice questions, so leaderboards stay comparable across question types.

Two rules follow from options closing at different times:

• An option stops earning accuracy score from the date its outcome became known. The options still open carry on being scored.
• A date on which a forecaster has never stated a probability for an open option is left out of their score for that date. Their last stated value is carried forward for an option they did state and then stopped restating.

AI Forecasting and AI Resolution

AI forecasting works on multiple-outcome questions. The AI forecaster states a probability per option with no sum rule applied, forecasts the open options, and receives the settled options as context.

AI resolution decides every open option in one sweep. It records an outcome and a known-at date for the options the evidence establishes, and leaves the rest open for a later sweep. A sweep that decides nothing is recorded as a decline.

See Resolving Questions for the resolution workflow that all question types share.